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Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis: Trends Of August 17���23, 2018

Information as of September 17, 2018

This report was created by:

  • Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox;
  • Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox;
  • Nick Evdokimov, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
  • Anar Babaev, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
  • Daria Generalova, Co-Founder of ICOBox

This report presents data on cryptocurrency market changes during 2018. Special emphasis has been placed on an analysis of the changes that have taken place during September 2018, including over the past week (September 9-16, 2018).

1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis. Market trends

1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis

Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from April 1, 2018 to September 16, 2018*

Parameter

1-Apr-18

1-July-18

QoQ, %

1-Aug-18

MoM, %

1-Sep-18

MoM, %

2-Sep-18

DoD, %

9-Sep-18

DoD, %

16-Sep-18

DoD, %

1

Total market capitalization, USD billion

263.9

257.7

-2.3%

277.8

7.8%

228.5

-17.7%

236.8

3.6%

193.2

-18.4%

203.4

5.3%

2Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion145.2147.91.9%144.3-2.4%107.0-25.8%112.85.4%85.8-23.9%90.55.5%
Altcoin dominance, %55.0%57.4%51.9%46.8%47.6%44.4%44.5%
3

Bitcoin price, $

7 003.1

6 411.7

-8.4%

7 769.0

21.2%

7 044.8

-9.3%

7 189.6

2.1%

6 223.4

-13.4%

6 536.7

5.0%

Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion118.7109.8-7.5%133.521.6%121.5-9.0%124.02.1%107.4-13.4%112.95.1%
Bitcoin dominance, %45.0%42.6%48.1%53.2%52.4%55.6%55.5%
4

Ethereum price, $

397.3

455.2

14.6%

433.9

-4.7%

283.5

-34.7%

295.5

4.2%

198.4

-32.9%

222.8

12.3%

Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion39.145.716.8%43.8-4.1%28.8-34.2%30.04.2%20.2-32.8%22.712.5%
Ethereum dominance, %14.8%17.7%15.8%12.6%12.7%10.5%11.2%
5

Bitcoin Cash price, $

688.0

749.2

8.9%

780.0

4.1%

544.0

-30.3%

616.0

13.2%

474.6

-23.0%

448.5

-5.5%

Bitcoin Cash market capitalization, USD billion11.712.99.9%13.54.4%9.4-30.0%10.713.3%8.2-22.9%7.8-5.4%
Bitcoin Cash dominance, %4.4%5.0%4.8%4.1%4.5%4.3%3.8%
6

Litecoin price, $

116.9

81.5

-30.3%

80.4

-1.4%

61.7

-23.2%

66.0

6.9%

53.3

-19.3%

56.6

6.2%

Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion6.54.7-28.6%4.6-0.6%3.6-22.6%3.86.9%3.1-19.1%3.36.4%
Litecoin dominance, %2.5%1.8%1.7%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%
7Volume (24h) 4 crypto, USD billion6.47.111.3%7.55.4%6.4-14.6%6.50.8%5.7-11.6%5.3-8.1%
Market cap 4 crypto, USD billion189.7186.7-1.6%207.911.4%173.0-16.8%178.53.2%146.9-17.7%154.65.3%

ZAK-4 Crypto index**

3.4%

3.8%

3.6%

3.7%

3.6%

3.9%

3.4%

4 crypto dominance, %

71.9%

72.4%

74.8%

75.7%

75.4%

76.0%

76.0%

8Volume (24h) 8 crypto, USD billion7.28.214.1%8.75.2%7.6-12.4%7.71.9%6.7-13.5%6.1-9.5%
Market cap 8 crypto, USD billion208.7205.9-1.4%228.210.8%189.2-17.1%195.43.3%160.0-18.1%168.55.4%

ZAK-8 Crypto index***

3.5%

4.0%

3.8%

4.0%

4.0%

4.2%

3.6%

8 crypto dominance, %

79.1%

79.9%

82.1%

82.8%

82.5%

82.8%

82.9%

* Data as of September 16, 2018 (all figures calculated at 03:00 UTC)

** Since December 1, 2017, the ZAK-4 index has been calculated using the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash

*** When calculating the ZAK-8 index, the cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization (not including Tether) are used. At present (September 16, 2018), the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Stellar, EOS, and Monero are used to calculate the ZAK-8 index.

**** This report uses the data of ICOBox, ICOBox Blockchain Research Center (IBRC), and coinmarketcap.com

When analyzing cryptocurrency market trends, the period from September 9-16, 2018, is used, while the calendar week from September 10-16, 2018, is used for the news overview and the analysis of the ICO market

Cryptocurrency market capitalization increased over the analyzed period (September 9-16, 2018), and as of 03:00 UTC equaled $203.4 billion (see Table 1.1). In this regard, bitcoin dominance equals 55.5%. The market dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of 03:00 UTC on September 16, 2018, equaled 76% and 82.9%, respectively (see Table 1.1).

The drop in cryptocurrency market capitalization compared to the start of the month equaled around $25 billion, including a drop in bitcoin capitalization by $8.5 billion and altcoin capitalization by $16.5 billion.

During the period from September 9-16, 2018, cryptocurrency market capitalization fluctuated from $186.2 billion (min) to $204.7 billion (max) (Fig. 1a), i.e. within a range of $18.5 billion. For its part, bitcoin capitalization fluctuated from $107 billion (min) to $113.8 billion (max), i.e. within a range of $6.8 billion.

Figure 1a. Cryptocurrency market capitalization since September 9, 2018

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Figure 1b shows bitcoin capitalization (red line) superimposed on cryptocurrency market capitalization (blue line). The high correlation between the indicators is obvious. This synchronicity has been seen for more than four months already, with a steady growth in bitcoin dominance. Since the start of May, bitcoin dominance has increased from 36% to 55.5%.

Figure 1b. Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market (blue) and bitcoin (red) since September 9, 2018

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The factors that might have influenced the fall in capitalization on September 11-12 are:

  • The SEC suspended trading in bitcoin and Ethereum ETN
  • Bloomberg: Has the largest holder of bitcoin started to sell?
  • The US Securities Act may be used for court prosecution of cases of ICO fraud

A clear downward trend can be seen on September 17 (Fig. 1a, 1b). Capitalization fell by nearly $10 billion. We may find out the real reasons for this at a later date. It is entirely possible that, as reported by The Telegraph, the payment program of the bankrupt bitcoin exchange Gox may lead to the sale of 160,000 bitcoins to pay creditors an amount of $1 billion, since the cryptocurrency market participants who lost their money must file a claim by October 22.

The rise and fall of cryptocurrency prices over the past seven days (September 9-16, 2018)

Last week’s leaders from among the top 500 cryptocurrencies by capitalization that showed the growth of more than 100% were the projects Vitae (+165.63%), VIBE (+105.55%), ETERNAL TOKEN (+102.93%), and OneRoot Network (+100.43%). The growth of Cindicator (+93.62%) and FuzeX (+63.80%) should also be noted.

During the period from September 9-16, 2018, the change in the prices of cryptocurrencies in the top 500 ranged from

-47.62% (Namecoin) to

+

165.63% (Vitae). Namecoin already lost most of its holders a long time ago, and disappeared from the radar of large media outlets. The fall in its price might be due to the overall negative market trend in the price of altcoins or the exit of a major holder.

The price of the Vitae token is hard to tie to any specific news item, since its trading volume at the start of the week was around $20,000, and after its 24-hour trading volume reached more than $100,000 for several days, by the end of the week the trading volume had settled back to around $30,000. The growth in the price against the backdrop of small trading volume might even be due to the increased activity of the community as a result of the recently launched bounty program.

The price of 309 cryptocurrencies and digital assets from the top 500 showed growth, including 56 from the top 100.

Over the past week the number of cryptocurrencies with a capitalization of more than $1 billion remained the same at 15, with the price of all of them increasing except Bitcoin Cash (-7.05%), Cardano (-11.43%), NEO (-1.27%), and Tether (the price of which is tied to the US dollar).

The coins and tokens from the top 100 that demonstrated the largest price growth are given in Fig. 2.

Biggest gainers and losers over the week

(September 9-16, 2018)

The prices of some cryptocurrencies may fluctuate from -50% to +50% over the course of a single day. Therefore, when analyzing cryptocurrency price trends, it is advisable to use their average daily amounts on various cryptoexchanges.

Below we consider the 10 cryptocurrencies that demonstrated the most significant change in price over the past week (Fig. 2-3). In this regard, only those coins and tokens included in the top 100 (Fig. 2, Fig. 3) by market capitalization were considered.

Figure 2. Largest growth in prices over the past week

This report uses the data of ICOBox, ICOBox Blockchain Research Center (IBRC), and coinmarketcap.com

The change in price was calculated based on average daily data

Tables 1.2 and 1.3 show the possible factors or events that might have influenced the fluctuation in prices for certain cryptocurrencies. Table 1.4 shows the possible factors or events that might have influenced the cryptocurrency market in general.

Table 1.2. Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week

Coins and tokens

Symbol

Price growth over the week, %

Average price in $ on September 16, 2018

Market capitalization, USD billion

Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week

1AuroraAOA

57.45%

$0.0227070.08

The price of Aurora increased by 57% over the week, mainly due to the news on its listing on the major exchange Kucoin (Twitter.com)

MOAC also grew on the back of good news on its partnership with the company MFISE (Twitter.com)

The key news item regarding Tezos this week was the upcoming launch of its main network on September 17 (Twitter.com)

The Dragonchain cryptocurrency is a digital token of a decentralized blockchain platform created in 2014 by the Walt Disney company.

The Dropil (DROP) cryptocurrency is a token used inside of a cryptocurrency investment platform. The essence of the project is autonomous financing of cryptocurrencies with minimal risks.

Nano (NANO) is a decentralized site that does not provide users with any services other than monetary services.

The Maker cryptocurrency is a digital token of the Maker project created on Ethereum blockchain, the main goal of which is to create a line of decentralized digital assets that would be tied to the value of real financial instruments such as currency, gold, etc.

Decentraland (MANA) is a virtual reality platform created on Ethereum blockchain that is controlled by smart contracts.

Waves is a platform founded in 2016, the main purpose of which is to create an ecosystem for business. Using this platform, anyone who wished could create their own project and launch an initial coin offering (ICO).

BitShares is a blockchain-based public financial platform. It ensures the decentralized exchange of assets, and is also used to pay for actions on the network or as collateral.

2MOACMOAC

45.07%

$1.950.12
3TezosXTZ

35.76%

$1.600.97
4DragonchainDRGN

30.05%

$0.2315950.06
5DropilDROP

26.90%

$0.0041790.09
6NanoNANO

21.82%

$2.490.33
7MakerMKR

21.53%

$418.780.30
8DecentralandMANA

20.11%

$0.0705630.07
9WavesWAVES

16.86%

$2.250.22
10BitSharesBTS

16.60%

$0.1166350.31

 

A depreciation in price was seen last week for 191 coins and tokens from the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets by capitalization. The ten crypto assets from the top 100 that experienced the most noticeable drops in price are shown in Fig. 3 and Table 1.3.

Figure 3. Largest fall in prices over the past week

Table 1.3. Factors or events that might have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week

Coins and tokens

Symbol

Fall in price over the week, %

Average price in $ on September 16, 2018

Market capitalization, USD billion

Factors or events that might have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week

1HoloHOT

-13.62%

$0.0011060.15The Holo cryptocurrency is the digital token of the Holochain platform, which makes the storage and distribution of data possible.

Walton (WTC) is a trustworthy business ecosystem with full transparency and data exchange.

The Cardano cryptocurrency is a distributed computing platform that manages the blockchain for the ADA cryptocurrency.

The NEM platform is a mix of Ethereum, Bitcoin and Ripple.

The GAS (GAS) cryptocurrency is one of two payment assets used on the NEO platform.

The Pundi X cryptocurrency is a protocol-based digital token that is part of the Pundi X ecosystem and acts as a means of payment on it.

The WAX cryptocurrency is the digital token of the first decentralized platform that allows gamers to trade virtual goods.

Bitcoin Cash was a cryptocurrency created through a bitcoin hard fork that has improved characteristics compared to the first cryptocurrency.

The main feature of the Hshare cryptocurrency is the use of a hybrid model to manage it, meaning that it combines two types of crypto mining – POW and POS.

The Monacoin cryptocurrency is a decentralized cryptocurrency with an open source code that was created in 2014 as a result of a hard fork of the Litecoin cryptocurrency.

2WaltonchainWTC

-11.81%

$3.080.12
3CardanoADA

-11.43%

$0.0680851.77
4NEMXEM

-8.86%

$0.0890910.80
5GasGAS

-8.84%

$5.690.06
6Pundi XNPXS

-8.49%

$0.0014390.16
7WAXWAX

-7.31%

$0.0602010.06
8Bitcoin CashBCH

-7.05%

$440.237.64
9HshareHSR

-6.97%

$2.230.10
10MonaCoinMONA

-6.78%

$0.9521000.06

This report uses the data of ICOBox, ICOBox Blockchain Research Center (IBRC), and coinmarketcap.com

The change in price was calculated based on average daily data

Table 1.4 shows events that took place from September 10-16, 2018, that had an impact on both the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and the market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.

Table 1.4. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, September 10-16, 2018

Factors and events

(link to source)

Date of news

Description

Nature of impact

Type of impact

1.                  

 

SEC Suspends Exchange-Traded Vehicles by CoinShare Holdings for Bitcoin and Ethereum

[source: Coinspeaker]

September 10, 2018The market launched trading in bitcoin exchange-traded notes tied to the US dollar in August. Prior to this they were only available in euros or Swedish krona. Over the month participants were unable to make sense of the products, and now trading has been suspended.MarketUncertain
2.                  

 

Ethereum Creator Vitalik Buterin Says Crypto Growth Ceiling is Near

[source: Coinspeaker]

September 10, 2018The situation on the cryptocurrency market is changing: growth like that seen last year won’t be seen again. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin believes the time has come to develop the blockchain ecosystem through people who can use its products in their real lives.Market ⇓Unfavorable
3.                  

 

Blockchain Records Will Now Be Accepted as Legal Evidence China’s Supreme Court Rules

[source: ccn.com]

September 11, 2018China has deemed blockchain a legal method to store information: now local courts can take evidence from there. Of course, this only has to do with Internet courts, of which there are currently only two in the country.Market ⇑

 

Favorable
4.                  

 

Ethereum Might Not Have Bottomed Out Yet, ICO Sell-Off Is the Culprit

[source: ethereumworldnews.com]

September 12, 2018The fall of Ethereum was strongly influenced by the actions of ICO projects, believe researchers at Trustnodes. Over the past 30 days, startups have sold three times more coins than they did last month.ETH ⇓Unfavorable
5.                  

 

Bloomberg: Mystery of the $2 Billion Bitcoin Whale That Fueled a Selloff

[source: bloomberg.com]

September 13, 2018The publication analyzes the possible reasons for the bitcoin collapse.Market ⇓Unfavorable
6.                  

 

The Daily: Binance Tests Fiat Exchange, Russians Mull Crypto Platforms

[source: news.bitcoin.com]

September 16, 2018The Head of the European Central Bank “doesn’t see a need” for the Central Bank to issue a cryptocurrency.Market ⇓Unfavorable

 

To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.5.a, and 1.5.b. In September the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple) equaled from $5.3 billion to $9.1 billion (Table 1.5.a). The value of the daily ZAK-4 Crypto ranged from 3.4% to 5.2% of capitalization. The highest trading volume was seen on September 5-6.

Table 1.5.a. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from September 1-16, 2018)

Crypto

Bitcoin (BTC)

Ethereum (ETH)

Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

Ripple (XRP)

4 Crypto

 

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Volume (24h) 4 crypto*

Market cap 4 crypto

ZAK-4 Crypto index

Date**

$

USD billion

USD billion

$

USD billion

USD billion

$

USD billion

USD billion

$

USD billion

USD billion

USD billion

USD billion

%

Sep 16, 2018

6 537

3.3

112.9

223

1.5

22.7

449

0.3

7.8

0.28

0.2

11.2

5.3

154.6

3.4%

Sep 15, 2018

6 509

3.2

112.4

210

1.7

21.4

448

0.3

7.8

0.28

0.2

11.0

5.4

152.6

3.5%

Sep 14, 2018

6 515

4.1

112.5

213

2.2

21.7

467

0.3

8.1

0.28

0.3

11.2

6.9

153.4

4.5%

Sep 13, 2018

6 354

4.2

109.7

184

2.3

18.7

434

0.4

7.5

0.27

0.3

10.8

7.2

146.7

4.9%

Sep 12, 2018

6 317

4.1

109.0

185

1.9

18.9

441

0.3

7.6

0.26

0.3

10.5

6.6

146.0

4.5%

Sep 11, 2018

6 332

3.8

109.3

198

1.6

20.2

468

0.4

8.1

0.27

0.2

10.7

6.0

148.3

4.0%

Sep 10, 2018

6 302

3.7

108.8

198

1.5

20.2

484

0.3

8.4

0.28

0.2

11.1

5.7

148.4

3.9%

Sep 9, 2018

6 223

3.7

107.4

198

1.6

20.2

475

0.3

8.2

0.28

0.2

11.0

5.7

146.9

3.9%

Sep 8, 2018

6 460

3.8

111.5

218

1.5

22.2

502

0.3

8.7

0.29

0.2

11.5

5.8

153.9

3.8%

Sep 7, 2018

6 529

4.3

112.6

230

1.7

23.4

519

0.4

9.0

0.30

0.2

12.0

6.5

157.0

4.2%

Sep 6, 2018

6 755

5.5

116.5

232

2.1

23.6

530

0.4

9.2

0.28

0.3

11.2

8.4

160.5

5.2%

Sep 5, 2018

7 361

5.8

127.0

286

2.4

29.1

626

0.5

10.9

0.33

0.3

13.1

9.1

180.1

5.0%

Sep 4, 2018

7 263

4.3

125.3

289

1.6

29.4

627

0.4

10.9

0.34

0.2

13.3

6.5

178.9

3.6%

Sep 3, 2018

7 279

4.1

125.5

295

1.4

30.0

648

0.4

11.2

0.34

0.2

13.6

6.1

180.4

3.4%

Sep 2, 2018

7 190

4.3

124.0

295

1.3

30.0

616

0.6

10.7

0.35

0.2

13.8

6.5

178.5

3.6%

Sep 1, 2018

7 045

4.1

121.5

284

1.5

28.8

544

0.5

9.4

0.34

0.3

13.3

6.4

173.0

3.7%

* Adjusted Volume – Volume from spot markets excluding markets with no fees and transaction mining

** All figures given as of 03:00 UTC of the corresponding day

*** This report uses the data of ICOBox, ICOBox Blockchain Research Center (IBRC), and coinmarketcap.com

By the end of the week the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies not including Tether (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Stellar, EOS, and Monero) equaled $6.1 billion (Table 1.5.b), or 3.6% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.5.a and 1.5.b.

The composition of the top four cryptocurrencies has remained the same since the start of 2018, but there have been some changes in the top eight (not including Tether):

  • in January EOS nudged out NEM, which is now in 18th place in terms of capitalization
  • in September (last week) Monero passed Cardano.

Table 1.5.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.5.а)

Crypto

Stellar (XLM)

Monero (XMR)

EOS (EOS)

Litecoin (LTC)

8 Crypto

 

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Price Open

Volume (24h)*

Market cap

Volume (24h)

8 crypto*

Market cap

8 crypto

ZAK-8 Crypto index

Date**

$

USD billion

USD billion

$

USD billion

USD billion

$

USD billion

USD billion

$

USD billion

USD billion

USD billion

USD billion

%

Sep 16, 2018

0.20

0.04

3.8

118.8

0.03

1.9

5.4

0.48

4.9

57

0.25

3.3

6.1

168.5

3.6%

Sep 15, 2018

0.20

0.04

3.8

116.7

0.04

1.9

5.3

0.51

4.8

56

0.25

3.3

6.2

166.3

3.7%

Sep 14, 2018

0.21

0.05

3.9

112.1

0.04

1.8

5.4

0.61

4.9

55

0.34

3.2

7.9

167.3

4.7%

Sep 13, 2018

0.20

0.07

3.7

104.6

0.04

1.7

5.0

0.72

4.5

52

0.30

3.0

8.4

159.6

5.2%

Sep 12, 2018

0.20

0.08

3.8

105.9

0.04

1.7

5.0

0.71

4.5

52

0.29

3.1

7.7

159.1

4.8%

Sep 11, 2018

0.19

0.08

3.6

106.0

0.03

1.7

5.1

0.58

4.6

55

0.27

3.2

6.9

161.4

4.3%

Sep 10, 2018

0.19

0.05

3.6

106.0

0.03

1.7

5.0

0.54

4.5

55

0.25

3.2

6.6

161.5

4.1%

Sep 9, 2018

0.19

0.05

3.6

104.3

0.04

1.7

4.8

0.62

4.3

53

0.25

3.1

6.7

159.7

4.2%

Sep 8, 2018

0.21

0.05

3.9

111.9

0.03

1.8

5.1

0.53

4.6

56

0.22

3.3

6.7

167.5

4.0%

Sep 7, 2018

0.21

0.06

3.9

117.2

0.03

1.9

5.2

0.65

4.7

57

0.23

3.3

7.5

170.8

4.4%

Sep 6, 2018

0.21

0.07

3.9

115.6

0.05

1.9

5.2

0.84

4.7

58

0.35

3.4

9.7

174.4

5.6%

Sep 5, 2018

0.23

0.07

4.4

137.9

0.05

2.3

6.5

1.01

5.9

68

0.41

3.9

10.6

196.5

5.4%

Sep 4, 2018

0.22

0.05

4.2

135.1

0.05

2.2

6.5

0.77

5.9

65

0.31

3.8

7.6

194.9

3.9%

Sep 3, 2018

0.22

0.05

4.2

120.1

0.05

2.0

6.6

0.72

6.0

66

0.24

3.8

7.1

196.4

3.6%

Sep 2, 2018

0.23

0.04

4.3

121.0

0.04

2.0

6.7

0.90

6.0

66

0.27

3.8

7.7

194.6

4.0%

Sep 1, 2018

0.22

0.06

4.2

116.3

0.05

1.9

6.4

0.75

5.8

62

0.31

3.6

7.6

188.5

4.0%

* Adjusted Volume – Volume from spot markets excluding markets with no fees and transaction mining

** All figures given as of 03:00 UTC of the corresponding day

*** This report uses the data of ICOBox, ICOBox Blockchain Research Center (IBRC), and coinmarketcap.com

Table 1.6 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the prices of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.

Table 1.6. Events that could have

an influence on cryptocurrency prices in the future

 

Factors and events

(link to source)

Date of news

Description

Nature of impact

Type of impact

1.South Korean Banks Withdraw Services to Anonymous Crypto Accounts

[source: coingeek.com]

September 12, 2018Credit organizations are promising to place restrictions on the import and export of funds in Korean won if traders do not switch to verified accounts by a certain date.MarketUncertain
2.India Update: RBI Claims Court Can’t Recognize Crypto as Currency Due to Existing Laws

[source: newsbtc.com]

September 13, 2018Representatives of the regulator explain their position with the fact that the country does not have a legislative framework for legalization of trading in cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the existing laws do not envisage the use of digital money, the RBI believes.MarketUncertain

 

1.2 Market trends

The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from December 31, 2017, to September 16, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5).

Table 1.7. Legends and descriptions of the graphs

Global Figures

Figure*

Description

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD millionFig. 1.1This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from December 31, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % to the beginning of 2017)Fig. 1.1This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to December 31, 2017.
Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to previous period)Fig. 1.2This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period)Fig. 1.2This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assetsFig. 1.3This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of September 16, 2018, this number had already reached 1,839 (coins and tokens on which there is information on capitalization and/or turnover were considered).
Average market capitalization, USD millionFig. 1.3This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.
Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalizationFig. 1.4, 1.5This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.

* NB! Average daily data are given in the graphs below. For this reason, the figures in the graphs may differ from the data in Table 1.1, where all figures were calculated at 03:00 UTC of the corresponding day. These differences in values may be significant during periods of high cryptocurrency market volatility.

** This report uses the data of ICOBox, ICOBox Blockchain Research Center (IBRC), and coinmarketcap.com

Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization

*

Average daily data

(according to the data of coinmarketcap.com

)

Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from December 31, 2017, to September 16, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization dropped from $572.5 billion to $201.4 billion, i.e. by 65%. Last week (September 9-16, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization increased from $193.4 billion to $201.4 billion (as of September 16, 2018, based on

the average daily figures from coinmarketcap.com).

 Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization

The market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. Nine of the thirteen weeks in the first quarter of 2018 were “in the red,” i.e. capitalization fell based on the results of each of these weeks, and the weekly fluctuations ranged from USD -136 billion to USD +250 billion.

Six of the thirteen weeks in the second quarter were “in the red.” The market grew based on the results of the other seven weeks. As noted earlier, a growth was seen in April, while in May and June there was generally a reduction in capitalization. The weekly fluctuations ranged from USD -72 billion to USD +62.2 billion.

Six of the past 11 weeks of the third quarter saw an increase in capitalization, and five a decrease (

with due account of average daily data of coinmarketcap.com, see Fig. 1.2). In July there was an increase of $20 billion, but August saw a decrease of $49 billion. On the whole, since early September capitalization has fallen by approximately $25 billion.

Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

Data source: coinmarketcap.com (coins and tokens on which there is information on capitalization and/or turnover were considered)

Since December 31, 2017, the total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets presented on coinmarketcap has increased from 1,335 to 1,960. However, when calculating cryptocurrency market capitalization only those coins and tokens on which there is information on trades (trading volume) are taken into consideration. Over the past week their number increased from 1,749 to 1,839, while average capitalization decreased to $109.5 million. In total, over the past month 111 new coins and tokens have appeared on coinmarketcap.com. However, it should be noted that a number of other coins and tokens were also excluded from the list. Among the tokens that were added to coinmarketcap.com last week, BUMO, CYCLEAN, RealTract and Abulaba showed high trading volumes.

 Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization

As early as June the European Parliament provided the results of an in-depth analysis: Virtual Currencies and the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy: Challenges Ahead), which considers the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy.

According to the authors, the crypto industry does not threaten the security of the Central Banks and national currencies, in fact its impact had a positive effect on global transactions and virtual currencies may become the main currency in certain countries.

The Abstract provided with the document states that virtual currencies are a contemporary form of private money. Thanks to their technological properties, their global transaction networks are relatively safe, transparent, and fast. This gives them good prospects for further development.

As we noted earlier, the movement toward the standardization of regulatory documents for the cryptocurrency industry and the rules for holding ICOs within the European Union could significantly reduce the risks for all participants (on September 4 the EU legislators discussed the “Standard” for regulating ICOs and Crowdfunding).

Last week, France, as one of the most progressive countries of the European Union, adopted a law on holding ICOs. Now anyone wishing to hold an initial coin offering must first receive the approval of the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). Therefore, investors can count on “certain guarantees,” and in the opinion of the country’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire the legislative framework will make it possible to attract innovators from around the world.

Annex – 

Glossary

Key terms

Definition

Market capitalization

Value of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: Wikipedia.org].

Cryptocurrency market capitalization

The market value of an individual coin or token circulating on the market.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization

The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and digital assets, i.e. the aggregate market value of cryptocurrencies and digital assets (coins and tokens) circulating on the market.

Dominance

Market share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (coin, token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.

Not Mineable

 

A coin that is not mineable. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (coins, tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.

Pre-mined

A pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (coins, tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.

The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)

The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.

The growth rate of the market (as a % to the beginning of the year)

The rate of market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.

Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period)

Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.

The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period)

The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.

The market growth rate (as a %

compared to the previous period

)

The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.

Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. At the beginning of 2018 over 1,300 cryptocurrencies and digital assets (coins and tokens) were circulating on the market.

Average market capitalization

Average market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.

ZAK-n Crypto index

The index is calculated as a percentage and represents a ratio between the trading volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for

n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization.

ZAK-4 Crypto index calculations include four dominant cryptocurrencies with the greatest market capitalization: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple.

ZAK-8 Crypto index calculations include the trading volume and market capitalization for eight cryptocurrencies.

Source : https://www.coinspeaker.com/2018/09/19/weekly-cryptocurrency-market-analysis-september-9-16-2018/

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